|
Feb 17, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
Biel states investors have "gotten a bit burned by long-standing software names" and are recognizing they "want to own hard assets, companies that make stuff." There is a capital rotation occurring away from digital/software assets (due to AI disruption fears) toward cyclical upswings in the real economy and "tools providers" in healthcare that are insulated from binary regulatory risks. Long "Hard Assets" and non-binary Healthcare. Economic slowdown dampening cyclical demand. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Gain as Tech Holds Up; Bonds Steady | ...
|
|
Feb 17, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
Biel notes that regional banks did not participate in the rally last year but now have an opportunity to improve due to "deregulation" and the ability to "do more with the balance sheets." If regulatory pressure eases and consolidation occurs (which Biel expects), regional banks can regain profitability and market share, trading at attractive multiples compared to large caps. Long Regional Banks as a deregulation/catch-up trade. Continued commercial real estate exposure and high interest rates. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Gain as Tech Holds Up; Bonds Steady | ...
|
|
Feb 17, 2026
|
|
AVOID
|
Biel argues software businesses that are just "optimizing" or "automating" without proprietary data are "ripe for disruption." Lee (Oaktree) adds that private credit has a "much higher bar" for software, specifically avoiding "coding companies" that can be displaced by AI. The "AI Scare Trade" is real. Companies that previously enjoyed "safe haven" status are now viewed as at-risk of obsolescence. If private credit pulls back lending to these firms, their liquidity and growth stifle. Avoid generic/legacy software stocks. AI adoption might be slower than expected, allowing legacy tech to adapt. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Gain as Tech Holds Up; Bonds Steady | ...
|